Readings

Course-Related Readings & Assignments (due before indicated class meeting)

Class #1 (Introduction):

Readings:

DP: 6-17

Class #2 (Introduction, continued):

Readings:

DP: 32-35

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment ("AR4") Working Group 1 ("WG1") Report, Summary For Policy Makers, pages 2-3

Class #3 (Greenhouse Gases on The Rise):

Readings:

Scientist-run blog RealClimate.org articles: How do we know that ..CO2 Increases, due to human activities? and How much...CO2..due to human activities?

Assignment:

Write a short (1-2 paragraph) critique of this article by climate change skeptic Dr. Roy Spencer, based on your readings and any possible supplementary sources of information you wish to use (though note the instructions regarding use of supplementary sources of information in the course syllabus). Come to class prepared to participate in a discussion.

Class #4 (The Greenhouse Effect):

Readings:

DP: 22--31

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report, Frequently Asked Questions, Question #1.3 "What is the Greenhouse Effect", pages 6-7

Class #5 (The Greenhouse Effect, continued):

Readings:

"The Discovery of Global Warming" by Spencer Weart (American Institute of Physics) The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect (the article is fairly lengthy, you may skim through it)

Assignment:

Use this online calculator from the University of Massachusetts Geosciences Department to investigate the impact of the Greenhouse Effect (you can ignore the list of questions). In this simple model, the greenhouse effect is represented by a single parameter, the fraction of the longwave radiation emitted from the Earth that is radiated back down towards the surface rather than escaping to space (due to the "greenhouse effect"). The current greenhouse effect is approximated by assuming that this fraction is 0.40 (i.e. 40%).

Do the following calculations. Convert all answers from Kelvin to Fahrenheit.

1. The default fraction of the online calculator is 0.397. Change this to 0.40 to estimate the current average surface temperature of the Earth.

2. What would the average temperature of the Earth be if there were no greenhouse effect at all? What are the implications of your answer?

3. Assume that doubling of CO2 concentrations relative to their pre-industrial levels will increase the back radiation from 40% to 41% (at the low end of the range that has been calculated by scientists). How much warming will be expected?

4. Assume that instead, this doubling increases the back radiation from 40% to 44% (at the upper end of the calculated range). Now how much warming would be expected in this case?

Class #6 (Observations of Modern Climate Change):

Readings:

DP: 36-39; 44-45

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1 Summary For Policy Makers, pages 5-6

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #3.1 "How are temperatures changing?", pages11-12

RealClimate article: The Global Cooling Myth

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1 Summary For Policy Makers, pages 7-8

Assignment:

Perform a google news search on "global cooling" to determine how many news articles in the past month (among those listed by google), refer to either the claim that scientists were predicting global cooling decades ago, or that the globe is currently cooling. You will turn in what you found. Be prepared to participate in an in-class discussion.

Class #7 (Observations of Modern Climate Change, continued):

Readings:

48-55

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #3.2 "How is precipitation changing?", pages 13-14

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #3.3 "Has there been a Change in Extreme Events?", pages 15-16

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #9.1 "Can Extreme Events be explained by Global Warming?", page 27

Assignment:

Read this this ABC News piece from July 2012, "It's Simple: Global Warming Is Causing the Extreme Weather" and this CNN piece from Feb 2014 “The weather is cuckoo this winter, but there's method to the madness”.

Also check out this Huffington Post commentary by your instructor from Jan 2014: "Drunken Arctic Goes Head Over Heels". Prepare a short (1 to 2 paragraph) summary to turn in. Assess the prevailing thinking about the linkage between climate change and extreme weather events.

Class #8 (In-Class Internet/Web Workshop):

[come to class prepared to participate in workshop]

Class #9 (In-Class Academic Integrity Workshop):

[come to class prepared to participate in workshop]

Class #10 (A Tempest in a Greenhouse: Have Hurricanes Become More Frequent or Intense?):

Readings:

DP: 56-57

“How Global Warming Made Hurricane Sandy Worse” by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central

USA Today article from July 2013: Storm warning: Climate change to spawn more hurricanes

Class #11 (Humans vs. Nature: The Competing Impacts of Humans and Nature on Climate):

Readings:

DP: 18-19

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #2.1 "How do Human Activities Compare with Natural Influences", pages 8-10 of document

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #6.1 "What caused...climate changes...before the industrial era?", pages 20-21 of document

Write a short essay (roughly1 page, single-spaced), in your own words, about the relative role of natural and human factors in climate change. Be sure to include some specific examples. Keep a copy of your essay, to bring with you to the writing workshop which takes place in class #12.

Class #12 (In-Class Writing Workshop):

[come to class prepared to participate in workshop; bring a copy of your latest essay from class #11]

Class #13 (The Paleoclimate Perspective):

Readings:

DP: 40-43; 46-47; 58-59; 62-63

RealClimate article: What does the lag of CO2 behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming?

RealClimate article: The lag between temperature and CO2

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Questions #6.1 and #6.2

RealClimate article: What we can learn from studying the last millennium (or so)

Assignment:

Come to class ready to participate in a discussion of how studying past climate can inform our understanding of human-caused climate change.

Class #14 (Study/Work Smarter Workshop):

[come to class prepared to participate in workshop]

Class #15 ("The Day After Tomorrow": A Possible Scenario?):

Readings:

DP: 60-61

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #10.2 "How likely are..Abrupt Climate Changes?", pages 31-32

National Center for Atmosphere Research “Climate Change: Will it look anything like The Day After Tomorrow?”

Class #16 ("The Day After Tomorrow": A Possible Scenario?):

(continued)

[CONTACT INSTRUCTOR WITH SUGGESTED TOPIC FOR COURSE-END MULTIMEDIA PRESENTATION]

Class #17 (Media Workshop):

[come to class (W140 Pattee) prepared to participate in workshop]

Class #18 (Online Publishing Workshop):

[come to class (112 Boucke) prepared to participate in workshop]

Class #19 (Climate Modeling; Can't we Explain Past Trends by Natural Factors Alone?):

Readings:

DP: 64-75

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #1.1 "What Factors Determine Earth's Climate?", pages 2-3

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #1.2 "What is the Relationship Between Climate and Weather?", pages 4-5

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #8.1 "How Reliable Are the Models?"

Assignment:

Perform a google news search using appropriate key words to find any news articles in the past month suggest that the warming of the past century is likely to have been due to natural, rather than human, influences. Briefly summarize your findings in a roughly 1 page summary. Come to class prepared to discuss some of the examples you found.

Class #20 (How Sensitive is the Climate?)

Readings:

DP: 78-85

“False Hope: Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036” by Michael Mann, Scientific American (April 2014)

Assignment:

Come to class prepared to participate in a group discussion.

Class #21 (Scientific Uncertainty)

Readings:

DP: 78-85; 20-21

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1 Summary For Policy Makers, table on page 8

"The Discovery of Global Warming" by Spencer Weart (American Institute of Physics), Reflections on the Scientific Process as Seen in Climate Studies

Assignment:

Read the news article The Truth About Denial from the August 13 2007 issue of Newsweek magazine. Write a short (2 paragraph) essay on the implications of scientific uncertainty about climate change.

Class #22 (Projections of Future Climate Change; Emissions Scenarios)

Readings:

DP: 86-87; 104-105

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1 Summary For Policy Makers, page 18

IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #10.3 "If Emissions are Reduced, How Quickly do Concentrations Decrease?", pages 33-34

RealClimate article: How much CO2 Emission is too much?

[ONE PARAGRAPH BLURB ON PRESENTATION TOPIC DUE]

Class #23 (Projections of Future Climate Change: Surface Warming)

Readings:

DP: 77; 88-97

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1 Summary For Policy Makers, pages 12-15

IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Frequently Asked Questions, Question #11.1 "Do Projected Changes...Vary from Region to Region?", page 3

Class #24 (Projections of Future Climate Change: Melting Ice, Rising Sea Level, Extreme Weather)

Readings:

DP: 77; 94-99

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1 Summary For Policy Makers, pages 12-15

RealClimate article: How Much will Sea Level Rise?

Assignment:

Perform a google news search to find recent news articles discussing climate change impacts on extreme weather events, including hurricane Sandy. Assess the reliability of your sources. Summarize your findings in one or two paragraphs. Come to class prepared to discuss your examples.