Research News

Global climate models do not easily downscale for regional predictions
Penn State researcher A'ndrea Messer writes an article on new research uncovered by Penn State climate researchers. The study reveals how hard it may be to downscale global climate models for more regional predictions.

Multiple proxy datasets can clarify ancient climate regimes
Penn State postdoctoral researcher Dr. Byron Steinman has released a paper on his research looking at the historical record of drought in arid and semi-arid regions of the western United States. He examined both tree-ring records and oxygen isotopes as proxies for past precipitation and temperatures. Dr. Michael Mann was a collaborator and co-author.
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ESSC Scientists release 2012 Atlantic tropical cyclone prediction
Dr. Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar have released their prediction for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They are predicting between 8 and 15 named storms with a best guess of 11.

Tree rings may underestimate climate response to volcanic eruptions
A new study by Dr. Michael Mann and his colleagues posits that tree rings, often used as a proxy for temperature changes, may not capture intense short-term changes like cooling due to large volcanic eruptions. This study, published in Nature Geoscience, compares temperature reconstructions from tree-ring data to climate models driven by past volcanic eruptions.
More information about this study >>
Read article from the Summit County Citizens Voice >>

Salt marsh sediments help gauge climate-change-induced sea level rise
Scientists, including ESSC director Dr. Michael Mann, have recently released a new 2,000 year record of changes in sea level. This new record, derived from salt water sediment cores taken from the salt water marshes of North Carolina, should provide further insight into past and future climate change.
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2011 Atlantic hurricane season prediction calls for above average activity
ESSC Scientist Michael Mann and researcher Michael Kozar have released their prediction for the 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1st. The prediction is for 16.25 +/- 4.0 total named storms, which corresponds to between 12 and 20 storms with a best estimate of 16 named storms.

Mann and Kozar release 2010 Atlantic hurricane season prediction
ESSC director Dr. Michael Mann and graduate student Michael Kozar have recently released their prediction for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November. Mann and Kozar predict an extremely active season due to warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and projections of near-neutral or slightly cool ENSO conditions.

Researchers make prediction for 2009 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Dr. Michael Mann and graduate student Tom Sabbatelli have made a prediction for the 2009 Hurricane season using the statistical model outlined in their 2007 paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

New Research Shows Antarctica Melting, Not Cooling
A new study published in the journal Nature takes a closer look at climate trends in Antarctica and finds that the continent is warming. Co-authored by Dr. Michael Mann, the study represents a reversal from earlier beliefs that Antarctica was cooling.
Nature editor's summary >>

Global warming greatest in the past decade
Dr. Michael Mann has recently published a new article in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences detailing the latest reconstructions of the temperature record for the past 1300 years. This research shows that the temperatures in the last decade are the warmest over this period.
Article from the Christian Science Monitor >>

Past hurricane counts accurate
Dr. Michael Mann and his student Thomas Sabbatelli have examined the hurricane and tropical storm counts back to 1870 and determined that the counts are largely reliable, disputing earlier claims that the counts may be underestimating by as much as 3 storms per year. This research is presented in a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters.
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