Supplemental Information for Mann et al (2009) Nature Article
Historical Tropical Cyclone (TC) counts
|
TC
counts [Year | Annual | Decadal Smoothed| Multidecadal Smoothed] |
Link
to File |
|
Standard
case [Mann et al ’07
adjustments](1870-2006) |
|
|
Alternative
case [Landsea ’07 adjustments](1870-2006) |
Annual Instrumental Climate Series Used to Train Statistical Model
|
SST
Products [Year | Blended | HadISST_ | Kaplan | NOAA
ERSST] |
Link to
File |
|
MDR
ASO SST (1870-2006) (anomalies relative to 1870-2006 mean) |
|
|
Nino3 DJF (1870-2006, where year is ‘D’
in DJF) (anomalies relative to 1870-2006 mean) |
|
|
NAO
Series [Year | Index Value (CRU NAO data)] |
Link
to File |
|
NAO
DJFM (1870-2006, where year is ‘D’ in DJFM) (anomalies relative to 1951-1980
mean) |
Decadally-Resolved Proxy
Reconstructions Used in Statistical Model TC Predictions (anomalies relative to same base periods as above)
|
Proxy
Reconstruction [Year | Reconstructed Value | -2 sigma limit | +2 sigma limit] |
Link
to File |
|
MDR
(AD 850-1850) [from ref. 17 of article, reconstruction was trained on modern HadCRU SST data] |
|
|
Nino3
(AD 850-1850) [from ref. 17 of article, reconstruction was trained on modern HadCRU SST data] |
|
|
NAO
(AD 1500-1850) [from ref. 18 of article, Luterbacher proxy/historical winter
NAO reconstruction] |
|
|
Corresponding
Instrumental Series [Year | HadCRU MDR| HadCRU Nino3 | Luterbacher+CRU
NAO] |
Link
to File |
|
Decadal
Instrumental Series shown in Fig 3 of paper [from ref.s
17 and 18 of article] (1851-2006) |
Statistical Model Predictions of TC Past Activity
|
Proxy-Driven
Predictions [Year | Predictions ] |
Link
to File |
|
Standard
case (uses Mann et al ’07
adjustment of
historical TC series) (AD 500-1850) |
|
|
Alternative
Case (uses Landsea ‘07 adjustment of historical TC series) (AD 500-1850) |
|
|
Training
Interval Fit [Year | Annual | Decadal Smoothed | Multidecadal Smoothed] |
Link
to File |
|
Standard
case (uses Mann et al ’07 adjustment of historical TC series)
(1870-2006) |
|
|
Alternative
case (uses Landsea ‘07 adjustment of historical TC series) (1870-2006) |
Raw Individual Overwash Sediment Deposit Chronologies
|
Event
Chronologies [ best estimate date | -1 sigma age
limit | +1 sigma age limit] |
Link
to File |
|
Mattapoisett Marsh, MA (ref. 15 of article) |
|
|
Succotash
Marsh, RI (ref. 14 of article) |
|
|
Alder
Island, NY (ref. 9 of article) |
|
|
Brigantine,
NJ (ref. 13 of article) |
|
|
Whale
Beach, NJ (ref. 12 of article) |
|
|
Singleton
Swash, SC (ref. 8 of article; “oyster bed dates” AD 169, 652, 1283 not
used—see article) |
|
|
Western
Lake, FL (ref. 11 of article) |
|
|
Laguna
Playa Grande Lake, Vieques, PR (ref.s 6,9,10 of
article) |
Regionally Composited Sediment Chronologies
|
Event
Chronologies [ best estimate date | -1 sigma age
limit | +1 sigma age limit] |
Link
to File |
|
New England U.S.
Coast |
|
|
Mid Atlantic U.S.
Coast |
|
|
Southeast
U.S. Coast |
|
|
Gulf U.S. Coast |
|
|
Caribbean |
Sediment-Based Basin-Wide Landfalling Hurricane Series and Jacknife Surrogates (see “Methods” for details)
|
Series
[Year | Value | Value w/out post 1700 Vieques | j.k.
surr1|j.k. surr2| j.k. surr3 | j.k.surr4| j.k. surr5 ] |
Link
to File |
|
Standard
case (chronologies normalized, variable sensitivity assumed among sites)(AD
500-1991) |
|
|
Alternative
case (chronologies not normalized) (AD 500-1991) |
|
|
Alternative
case (uniform
assumed sensitivity among sites) (AD 500-1991) |
|
|
Alternative
case (uniform
weights on sites) (AD 500-1991) |
Matlab© Codes for Performing the Analyses Described in the Article
|
Code
description |
Link
to File |
|
Driver
for overall analysis |
|
|
Code
to fit Poisson regression model and apply to proxy reconstructions to yield
long-term TC reconstruction and associated standard errors |
|
|
Code
to compute ensemble of basin-wide landfalling hurricane series from
sediment chronologies and their estimated age model uncertainties |
|
|
|
|
|
Same
as “MakeProxMC” but without New England records |
|
|
Same
as “MakeProxMC” but without Mid-Atlantic records |
|
|
Same
as “MakeProxMC” but without Southeast U.S. record |
|
|
Same
as “MakeProxMC” but without Gulf Coast record |
|
|
Same
as “MakeProxMC” but without Puerto Rico record |
|
|
Same
as “MakeproxMC” but without Puerto record after AD 1700 |
|
|
|
|
|
Code
to compute Gaussian random deviates used by “StatModelPaleoTC.m” |
|
|
Lowpass filtering codes used in
various routines (based on Mann GRL
’08) |
available here |
Responses to Potential Misconceptions