Long Range Forecasting Links

Meteo 485 Syllabus

Meteo 485 Contest Scores

Extensive Listing of Long Range Forecasting Links

Monthly Forecast

500 mb Analog Method

Persistence - Determine the current anomalies, both aloft and at the surface.

30 Day Accumulated Precip Movie

Temperature and Persistence Trends by Decade

CDC Plotting Page - Look at the bottom for daily data

Ensembles Briefing

CPC threat forecast

Analog - Determine what has happened with previous years like this one

CPC ENSO Detection Page

CDC ENSO Page

Teleconnections - Compare recent height anomalies with their

                                   connections around the rest of the hemisphere

CDC Map room - Click on Teleconnections Indicies

OLR monitoring page - the convective variations of the Madden-Julian oscillation

Numerical Guidance - Look at the ensembles and risk assessment from NCEP

PSU E-wall

NCEP Ensemble Products

CPC Seasonal Outlook

CPC Threats

NAO forecasts - by MRF

NAO Ensemble Mean forecast

Weather World 12 Day Trends Video

Bulletin type:

Station { TLH KTLH TAE KTAE } or State { @FL } Identifier
or SHOW to list available stations:

Time:

MFRMOS

GRUMM's EMSEMBLE MOS

z500_nh_30d_anim.gif (705057 bytes)

Tutorials

Winter Forecast and Oscillation Tutorial

NWS/PSU Long Range Forecsting Lectures (METEO 485 Spring 2004)

    1. Course Overview 2004, Defining Terms, Developing the Discipline.
    2. Introductory Discussion Outline of Operational Discussion (Knight)
    3. NWP Medium Range Guidance Introduction to NWP Guidance (Knight)
    4. NWP Long Range Guidance More on NWP Guidance (Knight)
    5. February Outlook Guidance for Monthly Forecasts (Knight)
    6. Ensemble forecasting Introductory lesson (Grumm)
    7. Lagged Average Forecasts and dProg/dt lesson
    8. El Nino/Southern Oscillation basics lesson.(Grumm/-2/11/04)
    9. Statistical Long Range Models A sampler(Knight/-2/13/04)
    10. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) basics
    11. The The New Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/North Pacific Oscillation (NP) and the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) and NAO. Older version on the PDO, PNA, and NAO.
    12. The The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation (Feb 18, 2004) Older version on the PDO, PNA, and NAO.
    13. The Probability Issues (Roulston, Feb 20, 2004)
    14. The The Climate Prediction Center (O'Lenic, Feb 25, 2004)
    15. The Annular Mode and other flow indices(NAO/PNA) basics and a touch of history.(Knight, March 3, 2004)
    16. The teleconnections No not those tubby guys! (Grumm, March 19, 2004)
    17. The Global Thermodynamics - Part One Key Concepts and Fundamental Theorems (Dutton, March 31, 2004)
    18. The Global Thermodynamics - Part Two Key Concepts and Fundamental Theorems (Dutton, April 14, 2004)
    19. The Atmospheric Predictability - Part Three Key Concepts and Fundamental Theorems (Dutton, April 21, 2004)
    20. Global Coupled Models GCMs : Oceans and Atmosphere control the weather.
    21. Objective Analog Predictions, going beyond anecdotal evidence.
    22. Surface Anomaly Analog Hindcasting, not just a case of persistence. (Murphy/Steinbugl - April 2, 2004)
    23. Analog Seminar, When simple models are competitive. (van den Dool - seminar April 7,2004)
    24. Climate Models, not just another initial condition problem.(Knight-4/9/4)
    25. MRF MOS lessons learned from consensus.(Grumm -4/16/4)
    26. Neural Networks and Climate Indices anomaly correlations in the US.(Matt Greenstein -4/26/4)
    27. The MJO for Dummies, a new improved look at this phenomena (Roundy 3/20/03).
    28. Climate Prediction Center, an inside look (Ed O'Lenic - 3/27/03).
    29. An introduction to the Quas-biennail oscillation: The QBO,
    30. SREF AMS Lecture, (Grumm/Hart) 01/18/2002
    31. Blocking Patterns Blocking Lecture, (Grumm) 02/26/2002
    32. NAM/Blocks and Solar Contribtions The NAM,Blocks and the Sun Lecture, (Knight) 02/26/2002
    33. Global Analog Forecasting The Global Analog Forecasting Lecture, (Hart) 4/10/2003
    34. Weather Derivatives Better Weather Lecture, (Dutton) 02/13/2004
    35. 2004 Class Presentations

    36. Scianna Discussion II
    37. Stonitsch Discussion
    38. Greenstein Discussion
    39. Greenstein Discussion II
    40. Munchak Discussion I-II
    41. Cianfrani Discussion
    42. Scianna Discussion
    43. Cornish Discussion
    44. Cornish DiscussionII